Western leaders are right: Putin doesn't have exit strategy in Syria

Local analysts see the Russian deployment in the region as a long term project. Western leaders are right: Putin doesn't have exit strategy in Syria. He wants them to have one.

By Slobodan Lekic (Stars and Stripes) {

Western leaders, including President Barack Obama, have warned that Russia — whose forces started bombing Syrian rebels at the end of September — were risking getting bogged down in the five-year Syrian conflict.

Local analysts see it differently.

“Of course (Russian President Vladimir) Putin doesn’t have an exit strategy,” said Labib Kamhawi, a Jordanian analyst. “The Russians are in Syria to stay.

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Analysts have pointed out that the array of warplanes, missiles and support aircraft deployed to the region are not the types of weapons needed for fighting the Islamic State or other rebel groups — mostly a light infantry force equipped with basic weapons. Instead, the Russians are using weapons intended for countering modern conventional powers.

These include the Sukhoi Su-30SM Flanker multirole fighters and Su-34 Fullback all-weather fighter-bombers. All are designed to operate in conditions against sophisticated air defenses — which the Islamic State doesn’t possess.


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The Russians aren’t the only parties using equipment designed for opponents far better armed and sophisticated than the Islamic State, the Nusra Front and other rebel groups in Syria.

Hisham Jaber, a retired Lebanese general and military analyst, said that all parties were using Syria as a testing ground for high-tech weapons systems.

He said that Britain and France appeared to be using the bombing campaign in Syria to show off the capabilities of their warplanes to potential buyers in the lucrative Middle East arms bazaar.

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said Miroslav Lazanski, defense correspondent for Serbia’s Politika daily, who visited the al-Assad airbase last month and noted the presence of the Il-18s.

“What’s immediately obvious at the airbase is that the Russians are preparing it for a very long deployment,” he said.

Previously, the only Russian presence in Syria was a small naval installation in the Mediterranean port of Tartus, established in 1971 and located about 50 miles south from the airbase. Western defense analysts have long speculated that Russia’s strategic goal in Syria was to preserve its only military bridgehead in the Middle East.

Lazanski listed base infrastructure improvements at al-Asad, such as runway and apron extensions, a refurbished control tower, new housing, canteens, parking lots and other facilities, as signs that the Russian military had long-term plans for the facility.

“In the future, the Russians won’t need aircraft carriers in the Middle East,” he said. “They’ll just have their airbase in Syria.”

Soure = Russian campaign in Syria offers country chance to test weapons, doctrine}