No Sunnis - No ISIS. Shia militias wage counterinsurgency on ISIS in Iraq

In many respects this Guardian report echoes other reports here and here. The absence of Sunni population. Systematic destruction of Sunni property. Shia Kurdish tensions that exploded in clashes the day after the Guardian left. In fact, its appears to be largely the same area visited by the Foreign Policy team.

In my view all reports are valuable as long as they are done professionally. Repeated confirmations establish certainty. So there is no shame in collecting reports that repeat themselves.

In one respect, however, this report adds on its predecessors. The Shia militia operating in the area is not among the ones that usually appear in reports from Iraq such as the Mahdi Army, Badr Brigades, Hezbollah or Asaib Ahl Al Haq. At least, until now.

According to the reporter, this new brigade has pledged allegiance directly to Iran's Supreme Leader of and intends to establish in Iraq an Islamic state in the style of Iran. This puts it at odds with Iraq's mainstream Shia establishment such as Ayatollah Sistani. Never min the secular minded Kurds or the Sunni Arabs with their paranoia of Iran and a Shia intervention from outside.

To summarize this and similar reports from Iraq until now, there are two factors here that can make the war against ISIS unsustainable in the long run.

Expectations are running high in Dabiq after Obama said may consider ground troops

President Obama said will give an order to send ground troops in, if ISIS arms itself with nukes.

To be sure, ISIS doesn't appear to have nukes (yet). But, if there is enough motivation, one can always improvise something. Or, at the very least, simulate. And the motivation does exist.

The motivation exists because ISIS is a great believer in the prophesy of Dabiq which predicts a massive end-of-times battle between Romans (interpreted as Westerners) and Muslim armies. ISIS has not only bothered to capture Dabiq. Even the online magazine published by the caliphate is called Dabiq.

Not so long ago a video recorded by ISIS in Dabiq featured ISIS Western fighters challenging the West to visit the place. To their dismay, the invitation went unanswered.

To be sure, Dabiq is a dull Allah forgotten town in northern Syria. Apart from fighting epic end-of-times battles, the opportunities for having fun in Dabiq are limited. This is simply not a place where one would like to get stuck for any period of time. But with Obama now giving them ideas, the ISIS fighters, bored to death in Dabiq, have finally got something to keep the hope going.

The Evolution of the ISISwood

The Sinai province of the Caliphate now produces high quality jihad videos in the style of Saleel as Sawarim and other classics of the ISIS Hollywood.

A new video from  Sinai features the same nasheeds  (vocal songs), piles of bodies of Egyptian soldiers and ISIS signature close-ups of  execution of prisoners.

On the bright side, the execution scene is preceded with a video of Egyptian security forces abusing their prisoners.

Overall, I'd say this video is an improvement on Saleel as Sawarim and other ISIS videos, both in terms of the geographical reach (It's Egypt) and the presentation of jihadi video material (Introducing the scene of army atrocities before the execution).

Source = http://goo.gl/3tNaHG
(Warning: The video is just as graphic as any other ISIS video)

Unnoticed, Libya's southwest is teetering on the brink of collapse

The author was in Fezzan last year. He says Tuareg and Tebu leaders in the region, gripped by tribal warfare, were already worried by the spread of radical Islamism. With Derna now a de-facto province of the ISIS caliphate, If Benghazi falls, an Islamist free transit corridor will be stretching from Libya's coast across North Africa..

# Al-Monitor
By Alexander Roeskestad () {

Date = November 13, 2014

The strategic and geopolitical importance of Fezzan, the Roman name given to Libya’s southwest, is seldom highlighted — its importance is directly related to the survival of Libya as a state. As fighting continues on the coast, in Tripoli and Benghazi, the bottom of the Libyan state may fall out, seemingly unnoticed.

[...]

Tribal warfare has expanded and become a zero-sum game, where each tribe or coalition fights for its survival. With the fall of Gadhafi and consequently the Gadhatfa tribe in the south, several tribes rushed to the scene to crown themselves rulers of Fezzan in response to the power vacuum. The outcome is still to be determined, but the result has so far been bloody...The deaths are but sad examples of the schism that has opened up in the south between various tribes who now fight for domination of the Fezzan.

[...]

In Ubari, a Tuareg-dominated village west of Sabha, radical elements from al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) have widened their presence and their activities have started to scare the population and tribes who no longer can control the newcomer. One spokesperson for the Tuareg community expressed desperation and the need for help when I visited in December 2013, especially fearing radicalization of the youth who see a better future in these radical group than the one found back home. Members of the Tebu community in the south are also warning about the spread of radical Islamists. Although the Tebu and Tuareg often clash over the right to protect oil fields in the south, they are also united and scared of the growing presence of radical Islamists. The rapidity, effectiveness and fearlessness of political Islamist groups using violence have overwhelmed societies with weak governments, where everyone is fighting everyone.

Although less politically charged for the time being than the situation in Benghazi, radical groups in the south are armed and present. If Benghazi in the east were to fall completely, like the city of Derna, where Ansar al-Sharia rules supreme, a corridor of free passage stretching from Nigeria, through Mali, Algeria, Chad and Niger, passing through southern Libya could open up.

If southwestern Libya falls into complete chaos, either by the hands of tribal warfare or radical Islamism, all of Libya and North Africa will be at risk.

(Alexander Roeskestad is a specialist in Middle East politics, security, and international business development. He recently worked in southern Libya with Chemonics International )

Source = http://almon.co/2a9q }

Iraq Next Time Bomb

The article parsed below was published by Rudaw on October 1. That is, exactly one month ago.

Yesterday, Rudaw reported another clash between Kurdish peshmerga and the Shia Badr militia. This time the Shia militias took some peshmerga fighters prisoner

The dysfunctional Iraqi army apart, Peshmerga and Shia militias are pretty much all the US got to rely on for ground forces in Iraq.

# Rudaw
Sunni Arabs seek Peshmerga protection from Shia militias in Kirkuk () {

By = Hiwa Hussamaddin
Date = 1/10/2014

(...)

Sherwan Hamid, a Kurdish Peshmerga officer near Kirkuk, told Rudaw, “The policy and behavior of Shiite militants have changed completely. In the beginning their only goal was to retake Shiite areas, but now they have started seeking revenge.”

Hamid added, “Following the liberation of Amerli, Suleiman Beg and some other villages, the Shiite militants entered the village of Yenginje and destroyed all the houses, stores and shops that belonged to Sunni Arabs.”

“When they find an IS militant corpse, they behead it and drag the body from the car in the streets,” he maintained.

(...)

Pola Ahmed, director of Daquq security station south of Kirkuk, said, “IS still controls several areas within Kirkuk’s borders. The security authorities, with the help of the Iraqi army, have a plan to retake those areas and the Shiite militants are expected to participate in the operation. This has raised grave concerns among the Sunnis.

Ahmed added, “We have been approached by Sunni Arabs in those areas via tribal leaders. They have informed us that they would like to have the Peshmerga forces attack their areas and that they are ready to surrender themselves and their arms to Peshmerga forces on the condition that Shiite militants can’t attack their areas,” Ahmed added.

(...)

The director of security in the town of Tuz Khurmatu in Salahaddin province south of Kirkuk, said the Peshmerga worked well with the Shiite militias on anti-IS missions but their relationship has deteriorated over the past few weeks.

They “attacked our checkpoint at Khurmatu gate, but we repelled the attack,” he said. “The Shiite militants, on a daily basis, make problems for Kurds inside the town of Khurmatu.”

Source = http://t.co/7voEU3sxxn 

}