Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Egypt is busy planting its next demographic time bomb

Egypt is busy planting its next demographic time bomb. Survey finds TFR went up from 3 births to 3.5 per woman since 2008

I should notice that it's an article of faith among demographers that nations that experienced prolonged declines of fertility don't reverse the decline until they hit the sub replacement zone (less than 2.1 births to woman). So Egypt here is turning tables on the science of demography

Apart from this, Egypt already imports a half of its food and apparently turned into a net energy importer.

Given that the surge in births has been going on since 2008 and that Egyptians often start to work at the age of 15, if not younger, the attack on the labor market should come within a decade.

It's not that Egypt doesn't suffer from high unemployment already. And I am not talking about food, fuel or energy in the meantime. So Sisi has years counted to kickstart Egypt's economy before the bomb goes off and turns Egypt into a Yemen-on-the-Mediterranean.

# Associated Press
APNewsBreak: Egypt's birth rate dramatically rises () {

By = Merrit Kennedy
Date = October 28, 2014

The survey, conducted jointly with Egypt's Ministry of Health and Population and a U.S. Agency for International Development-funded organization, said the number of births per woman has increased from 3 to 3.5 since 2008. Egypt's fertility rate had been steadily decreasing since at least 1980, when the survey began.

"It's a stunning result," said John Casterline, a professor at the Ohio State University who focuses on fertility rates. Casterline said it is extremely unusual for a country's fertility rate to suddenly increase after decreasing for years.

Researchers say the reasons behind the striking uptick are largely unclear.

The news raises serious economic concerns for the Arab world's most populous country, whose economy has been staggering since its 2011 revolt.

Source: }